The 2020 Presidential election, set to take place November 3rd, is one of the most anticipated and intense elections in US history. The individuals facing off include incumbent President Donald Trump, former VP Joe Biden, and popular celebrity Kanye West. Many speculate that Mr. West will drop out of the race before the election or that if he remains a competitor, the votes he will earn will be negligible. As such, for all intents and purposes, the most prudent approach to analyzing the political polls eliminates him from the equation.
This then leaves Americans with two choices, the present President Donald Trump, or former Vice President under the Obama administration, Joe Biden. Judging solely based upon polls, Joe Biden is predicted to capture 55% of votes compared to the 40% Donald Trump is projected to gain. This poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News clearly indicates that Biden is favored to win the election. But democrats are not so quick to believe this story.
Democrats remember the 2016 election and the lead hopeful Hillary Clinton held in the polls for the vast majority of the year preceding the election. However, despite her projected success she suffered a defeat. This memory is stained in the memories of millions of democrats and has made them weary of the predictive ability of polls.
Moreover, the lead Joe Biden has is a new development. As of early March, the two candidates were neck in neck, with neither showing a decisive lead. Then the spread of coronavirus occurred, and the economy nosedived. It is the combination of these factors that many attribute President Trump’s dropping popularity to.
Another obstacle that will be encountered in this election is not all republicans and democrats supporting the candidate selected. More moderate and liberal republicans have grown jaded, and no longer believe President Trump is the best man to lead the party. Likewise, far left democrats find Joe Biden to be an inadequate representative for democrats and would have preferred a more radical liberal such as Bernie Sanders. If both of these groups do not get out to vote, the results of the election could be immensely different.
In conclusion, judging the upcoming election solely based upon the polls would be a folly. There are far more complex patterns and trends that ought to be analyzed. Therefore, I cannot say with conviction who will be president come November of 2020.